Early this week Julia Gillard was dealt a potentially deadly blow. Some in her party would have suspected it, but to others it must have been quite a shock.
No, we’re not talking about the comments made by a brutally honest Kevin Rudd about the events of last year. We’re speaking of the latest Newspoll figures.
To understand why this poll could prove to be so devastating, we have to go back 4 weeks. Julia Gillard had recently announced her backflip on a carbon tax. And all polls were showing a large drop in support for her government (Newspoll was showing ALP: 46, LNP: 54).
It is reasonable to attribute a large part of this loss to voters with cost of living pressures who worry that a carbon tax will see them lose money, or even their jobs. These are the swinging voters that were convinced to support Gillard after her declaration just prior to the election that she would not introduce a carbon tax.
Two weeks after Labor’s terrible Newspoll, and after admitting to and explaining her backflip, the next Newspoll showed a large turnaround. Labor were back in front (ALP: 51, LNP: 49). Had the tide turned for Labor? Was their carbon tax message finally getting through to the swinging voters whose support they require?
Two days later a rally was held against the carbon tax. Most of the people who attended were concerned citizens who were, for various reasons, against the tax. As with all protest movements, a few more extreme types turned up as well.
And here is where Gillard made her fatal mistake. Perhaps emboldened by the recent Newspoll, she made an attempt to lock moderate people in behind her, and paint anyone who stood against her as an extremist. So Gillard and her government went on the attack against the protesters, calling them everything from misfits to oddballs, and one even suggesting the Ku Klux Klan would have fit in.
Perhaps if the Newspoll really did reflect a change in support for the carbon tax this tactic might have worked. But what if this poll was a rogue? What if there was no great move within the electorate towards supporting a carbon tax. In that case, the effect of demonising the protesters was to demonise all the swinging voters concerned about the tax. And these are voters whose support Gillard desperately needs. Rather than locking them in behind her, she may in fact have locked herself out.
The Newspoll released overnight on Monday showed the worst result for Labor in many years (ALP: 45, LNP: 55). That adds weight to the theory that the poll 2 weeks ago was a rogue. That could mean big trouble for Gillard. And that’s before we even start thinking about Kevin.