If you’ve known someone who has gone through a messy break-up only to get back together with the person some time later then you’ve seen our current political situation play out before.
The public began to turn on Rudd in 2010 but before they had the chance to complete the process and vote him out of office, his own party removed him from power.
We are currently in the early stages of the rekindled relationship. And despite all of Rudd’s failings as well as the failings of the ALP in general, the public as polled are infatuated all over again with Kevin.
Despite this, the Liberals have been relatively quiet. There are fears that if they don’t start attacking Rudd hard he may ride his current wave of popularity all the way to another election win.
Returning to the relationship analogy. No matter how bad the original relationship was, if a friend comes to you to announce that they’re back together with their ex, the worst thing to do is immediately launch into an attack on their partner. While those early feelings of infatuation are present your friend will almost certainly ignore anything negative you have to say about their partner, no matter how logical. Or worse, they will turn against you so that when the time does come when they’re ready to listen to sensible advice you will be out of the trusted zone of people they respect and listen to.
The best strategy is to wait until the early lusty feelings have started to subside. By this time the old cracks will be starting to show again. They will begin to remember all the reasons why the relationship didn’t work out the first time. And most importantly, they will be ready to listen to valid criticism from others.
It is no surprise that Rudd’s polls have improved during these early days. But already we’ve seen glimpses of the Rudd of old. People don’t change that much. As this starts to sink in it will be time for the Liberals to press home the reminders of what came before. And I suspect they’ll find a public ready to listen.